England’s 26-point victory over Sri Lanka has pretty much confirmed not only their qualification but also their lead in Group 1, as Sri Lanka is on the brink of elimination. Here’s a look at where the teams stand with five games to go in the squad.

England
Played: 4, Points: 8, NRR: 3.183, Remaining match: vs South Africa

Not only have England won all four matches, but they have also done so convincingly, racking up a net run rate of 3,183. This means the other two teams that can reach eight points – South Africa and Australia – will need huge wins to get closer to England’s mark. How huge, you ask? Here’s an example: If South Africa beats Bangladesh by 70 points and England by 71 (after scoring 160 each time), they’ll sneak past England. For Australia, the task is even heavier: even if they win the last two games by a total margin of 140 points, they will still need England to lose their last game by around 100. So it is pretty safe to assume at this point that England will be at the top of the group.

Sri Lanka
Played: 4, Points: 2, NRR: -0.590, Remaining match: against the West Indies

With just one game to go, four points is the maximum Sri Lanka can reach. For that to be enough, they will have to hope that South Africa and Australia lose their two remaining matches, which will mean five teams will finish with four points each. A big win against the West Indies will then increase their NRR – if they score 160 and win by 50 points, it will drop to 0.047. If South Africa loses its last two games, its NRR – currently 0.210 – can easily slip below Sri Lanka’s. Sri Lanka’s NRR could then be the best of the five teams. However, if any of these outcomes do not go the way Sri Lanka would like, it will be canceled.

South Africa
Played: 3, Points: 4, NRR: 0.210, Remaining matches: against Bangladesh, England

South Africa have won two and lost one, and one of their remaining matches is against their squad’s form team. If they beat Bangladesh and lose to England they will be at the mercy of other results as Australia can finish with eight points if they win their last two. Their NRR of 0.210 is, however, significantly better than Australia’s -0.627 and West Indies -1.598, and it will help their cause if either or both of those teams finish with six points with South Africa.

Australia
Played: 3, Points: 4, NRR: -0.627, Remaining matches: against Bangladesh, West Indies

Australia’s low NRR could hurt them if it were that factor against South Africa. Their best case scenario is to win their remaining two games and then hope South Africa loses at least one. If Australia loses one, they would like South Africa to lose both and stay on four points.

West Indies
Played: 3, Points: 2, NRR: -1.598, Remaining matches: vs Sri Lanka, Australia

The West Indies NRR is the worst among the six teams in Group 1, so they won’t want run-rate scenarios to come into play (unless they get huge wins in their last two games) . Their best scenario would be for Australia and South Africa to lose their last two games and stay on four points. Then the West Indies can qualify with six points if they win their remaining two matches.

Bangladesh
Played: 3, Points: 0, NRR: -1.069, Remaining matches: against South Africa, Australia

As mentioned earlier, it is possible for five teams to finish on four points each. Bangladesh’s problem, however, is also its weak NRR, which it will need to lift to have any chance of fighting for second in the group.